A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
